August 2, 2012 News: A junior official of the MILF, handling the second post in Front’s Committee on Information, had regretted that they have not invited American writer, Zachary Abuza, to the recent MILF-sponsored Bangsamoro Leaders’ Assembly in Darapanan, Sultan Kudarat, Maguindanao on July 6-9, for him to see how popular the organization is and how it could relate to all sectors of Moro society including leaders of the MNLF.

Five hundred fifty thousand people came to the assembly without asking the MILF for any cent for their transportation and food requirements.

“Perhaps seeing is good for him, because he is always sniping at the back of the MILF ever since he self-styled as expert on the Moro affairs in Mindanao.”

This was the reaction of Khaled Musa, deputy chairman of the MILF’s Committee on Information, on the recent article of Zachary Abuza titled “Stars aligned? Prospects for peace in Mindanao.”

Abuza is Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Simmons College in Boston where he teaches Southeast Asian politics and security issues. From 2010-2012 he was Professor of National Security at the National War College in Washington, DC.

He claimed in his article that the MILF is desperate to conclude an agreement for five reasons. The first and most pressing, is that they are a shadow of their former selves. They command less popular support and military capabilities than anytime in the last 15 years. Should talks fail, the MILF is unable to revert to war over a sustained period.  By definition, militant groups fight, and if they are not fighting, they are not training, maintaining their underground supply lines and acquisition networks. More importantly, they lose their command and control and their ideological raison d’etre.

He further said that the protracted peace process has diminished their battlefield efficacy. If you don’t believe me, look at 2007-08, when they had every reason to resume their armed struggle: there were low-level sporadic attacks but nothing that could be sustained. The MILF will never get stronger, and at the same time the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) are slowly improving their capabilities. Were all-out war to break out again, the MILF would lose - even more than they lost in 2000 and 2003. The MILF’s greatest asset at the negotiating table was the threat of returning to war. That threat rings hollow today: they lack the necessary capabilities, unity and command and control.  Nor would the population necessarily support them if war were to break out. After decades of conflict the population in Muslim Mindanao is exhausted. Although there has not been a formal peace, there has been a substantial “peace dividend” since 2003. There is no stomach for a return to war, and the MILF knows it. The change in the battlefield is reflected in the negotiations: in each iteration of the talks the government has had to offer the MILF less. What was on the table in 2004 and 2005, an eventual referendum, isn’t even broached today. The size and scope of the MILF’s ancestral domain shrinks, as does their demand for control over natural resources. The Bangsamoro Juridical Entity withered to a “substate” to the point that even Murad now uses the once poisonous term “autonomy.” If they don’t conclude a deal soon, they will be offered even less in the future.

With a growing economy, and more resources, time is on the government’s side, not the MILF’s.  Third, MILF Chairman Ebrahim el Haj Murad has staked his entire reputation and leadership on delivering peace. He has already been challenged by hardliners in the movement, such as Ameril Umbra Kato. Each setback weakens him, and leaders do care about their legacies. More importantly, the MILF bench is not that deep, and it is hard to see a next generation leader that could hold the group together and negotiate peace."

Musa lamented that someone who is claiming to be an American, said to be champion of freedom and liberty, could do such tongue-lashing without checking his data and without talking to the MILF leaders first.

“It is good for him for not asking for a meeting with any MILF leader, because he would be rejected anyway,” Musa predicted.

“Why talk to an arrogant man?’ he added.