COTABATO CITY — The decades-long peace process in the Bangsamoro region has reached a critical juncture, with stalled demobilization, political instability, and election uncertainty putting hard-won progress at risk, according to a new report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) released March 10.

Titled "The Bangsamoro’s Moment of Truth," the report was shared with the Luwaran by Georgi Engelbrecht, ICG’s Senior Analyst on the Philippines. It flags mounting challenges that threaten to reverse gains achieved under the 2014 Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB) between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF).

 

Political Impasse and Uncertain Elections

 

The transition to full regional governance is currently deadlocked amid an unclear political trajectory and repeated delays to parliamentary elections—originally intended to complete the peace agreement’s political track. A series of developments have compounded complications:

 

- Sulu Exit: In late 2024, Sulu province withdrew from the autonomous region following a Supreme Court ruling, prompting the first in a string of election postponements.

- Leadership Friction: In March 2025, Manila unilaterally replaced the Bangsamoro interim chief minister with a leader viewed as more aligned with the national government. The move was poorly received by the MILF, pushing mutual trust to a "new low."

- Ongoing Delays: The Commission on Elections (COMELEC) announced in January 2026 that insufficient time remained to organize the ballot, leaving the election date unresolved.

 

Normalization Track Lagging Far Behind Schedule

 

Efforts to implement the "normalization" track—designed to build regional safety and prosperity—are significantly off pace. While 26,000 MILF fighters decommissioned their arms by 2022, the final phase covering 14,000 combatants is deadlocked, with funding identified as the primary barrier. The MILF has denounced Manila’s financial measures as inadequate and inconsistent with the 2014 accord.

 

Plans to convert former MILF camps into peaceful communities are moving slowly, and amnesty provisions for former combatants remain mired in "bureaucratic limbo."

 

Rising Risks of Local Unrest

 

Though poverty is gradually declining and widespread jihadism is no longer a threat, progress remains uneven. The Bangsamoro retains the highest illiteracy rate in the Philippines, and local violence is on the rise. The report warns that election uncertainty and divisions within the MILF leadership could spark further unrest, ranging from rebel activity to political discontent.

 

ICG Calls for Immediate Action to Revitalize Process

 

The ICG urges both Manila and Bangsamoro authorities to act swiftly to prevent the peace process from "sputtering out." Key recommendations include:

 

- Rebuild Trust: Convene urgent meetings between government and MILF peace panels to address growing distrust.

- Fulfill Commitments: Deliver promised socioeconomic support packages to decommissioned combatants in line with the original agreement.

- Strengthen MILF Cohesion: The movement must resolve internal differences and rein in feuding commanders to avoid fragmentation.

- Address Land Issues: Engage in dialogue on land tenure disputes and protections for non-Moro Indigenous communities.

- Maintain Donor Support: Foreign partners should continue tailored assistance to safeguard progress made over the past decade.

 

The report concludes that while an "uneasy, imperfect peace" remains more likely than a return to war, urgent action is essential to prevent renewed instability.

 

Headquartered in Brussels, Belgium, the International Crisis Group is a global policy think tank and early warning system dedicated to preventing deadly conflict. Its work is grounded in the belief that war is a human-made crisis that can be averted through rigorous research and proactive diplomacy.